A global cocoa shortage is reshaping the chocolate landscape—and consumers across the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already paying the price.
Shoppers may have noticed chocolate bars shrinking, prices creeping up, or flavors subtly changing. Behind these shifts lies a deepening cocoa crisis, driven by extreme weather, crop diseases, and illegal mining in top-producing countries Ivory Coast and Ghana. Together, they supply nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa, but yields have plunged. Ghana alone is expected to produce just 500,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season—almost half its previous output.
With supply drying up, prices have surged. Cocoa futures soared past $10,000 per ton in January and continue to hover around $9,400, more than twice the average from two years ago. Cocoa butter and powder prices have also shattered records, pushing up production costs globally.
Europe, the world’s largest chocolate market, saw cocoa processing drop 3.7% in early 2025—the lowest for the period since 2017. Similar slowdowns have hit North America and Asia.
Global chocolate giants are adapting with quiet but telling changes. According to the Wall Street Journal, manufacturers like Hershey, Mars, and Mondelez have begun shrinking bar sizes, swapping in cheaper ingredients like wafers and nuts, and shifting toward non-chocolate snacks. In some cases, prices have surged while portion sizes have dropped—like the Twix Easter Egg in the UK, which slimmed down from 316g to 258g but rose 47% in price this April.
In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, where imported chocolates dominate the market, residents are feeling the impact. Retail shelves are seeing fewer value packs, and even store-brand options are showing signs of “shrinkflation.”
“Even supermarket-brand chocolate isn’t immune,” a Dubai-based food importer told The Global Filipino Magazine. “We’re seeing smaller quantities in the same packaging, and cocoa-based desserts cost more to produce now.”
Online buyers are also affected, with platforms like Amazon UAE and Noon listing higher prices for cocoa products and flagging some items as “limited stock.”
With cocoa trees taking years to mature and climate conditions still volatile, experts warn the crisis could drag on beyond 2026. As one cocoa analyst told Bloomberg, “It’s not just a supply chain issue—it’s a structural one.”